Industrial Base Alpha

Industrial Base Alpha

The Valuation Trap

Are Defense Tech Valuations Too High? The Founders Getting Rich on Paper and Broke at Exit

Matthew Bernard's avatar
Matthew Bernard
Apr 13, 2026
∙ Paid

BLUF: Defense tech founders are raising at valuations calibrated for IPOs in a market where the realistic exit is an M&A transaction at a fraction of that price. The gap between entry valuation and likely exit multiple is widening, and almost no one in the room is saying so out loud. Venture capitalists competing for limited talent are bidding prices up…

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